Dynamic Change and Clinical Relevance of Postinfectious SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses.

BACKGROUND: Although reports suggest that most individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) develop detectable antibodies postinfection, the kinetics, durability, and relative differences between immunoglobulin M (IgM) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses beyond the first few weeks after symptom onset remain poorly understood. METHODS: Within a large, well-phenotyped, diverse, prospective cohort of subjects with and without severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed infection and historical controls derived from cohorts with high prevalence of viral coinfections and samples taken during prior flu seasons, we measured SARS-CoV-2 serological responses (both IgG and IgM) using commercially available assays. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and relationship with disease severity and mapped the kinetics of antibody responses over time using generalized additive models. RESULTS: We analyzed 1001 samples from 752 subjects, 327 with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 (29.7% with severe disease) spanning a period of 90 days from symptom onset. Sensitivity was lower (44.1%-47.1%) early (<10 days) after symptom onset but increased to >80% after 10 days. IgM positivity increased earlier than IgG-targeted assays, but positivity peaked between days 32 and 38 post-onset of symptoms and declined thereafter, a dynamic that was confirmed when antibody levels were analyzed, with a more rapid decline observed with IgM. Early (<10 days) IgM but not IgG levels were significantly higher in those who subsequently developed severe disease (signal/cutoff 4.20 [0.75-17.93] vs 1.07 [0.21-5.46]; P = .048). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that postinfectious antibody responses in those with confirmed COVID-19 begin to decline relatively early postinfection and suggests a potential role for higher IgM levels early in infection in the prediction of subsequent disease severity.